Nulla tenaci invia est via.

Nulla tenaci invia est via.


  • Tag Archives iridium
  • situation essentially unchanged

    

    The market made a big rally yesterday, which hurt the Company’s positions, the Company has a bearish position. However the Company’s opinion and strategy with the market situation is unchanged. The market will soon take into account a number of factors. Bailing out Greece will be perpetual unless the euro is devalued or some other measure is taken. Further note that Greece hasn’t actually been bailed out yet; the Europeans are simply making mildly positive talk at the moment. Further, hopes of QE3 are completely unrealistic and the Fed has already undertaken defacto tightening by ending QE2, nor is there any real prospect of hyperinflation in the US. Most importantly, LIBOR COT open interest, which is a very reliable forward indicator, suggests we will see a dramatic fall in markets this summer. You should pay very close attention to this fact; we’re talking about the open interest of the biggest banks. While timing the market with LIBOR COT is imprecise, all indications suggest a drop starting in June and lasting until Halloween, and then a rally thereafter. Basically I would say yesterday was a “fake” or fool’s move. Further, the market will generally make a knee-jerk response to news (Greece bailout) and then, a day or two later after digesting it, start moving in the opposite direction. This pattern is well known. The only move I find interesting yesterday was platinum, which shot up on very high volume. I think this is because of iridium.



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    We are not day traders. We trade options with a 1-3 month window. Our discussion here reflects this.
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