Nulla tenaci invia est via.

Nulla tenaci invia est via.


  • Tag Archives FOMC
  • Key dates & Germany & Switzerland

    1. Bundestag vote sept 29–>implications for euro and its generally inverse relation with the dollar. Furthermore EWG–at the moment I don’t see many better investments than Germany. Need to study EWG more and make a trade plan. The tricky part here is a weakening euro… might be too complicated for my taste. Shorting FXF for example forces me to watch /E7, /DX, and EUR:CHF and the mathematical relations are a headache. Nevertheless again, I don’t see many better investments than Germany.
    2. Obama speech Thurs–can’t even guess the implications
    3. FOMC Sept. 20, Nov. 1-2 and Dec. 13.–>any even vague hint of easing will trigger a big rally

    AND….

    4. EWL–I foresee a flight out of Swiss currency and into Swiss assets. With a depreciating currency assets will appreciate, beause the high franc was crippling the Swiss economy. With this out of the way and a cheaper franc, the economy should get an adrenaline boost… additionally people (the Swiss and those holding francs) will want to avoid capital destruction. Basically the SNB is conducting a form of quantitative easing. Need to form trade plan. The risk/reward isn’t as appealing as with EWG, however.


  • Notes on seasonal patterns

    The Company is big on patterns and macro events. Some notes:

    • The Swiss franc tends to rally at the end of Jul and hit a short term bottom mid-Aug. This has been a consistent pattern for 25 years.  c.f. Commodity Traders Almanac [CTA]p.187. Currently holding Sept FXF puts.
    • The Swiss economy is getting strangled by the high value of the franc, making this pattern even more likely
    • Same pattern with silver CTA p.155 which is highly correlated with the franc. Currently holding ZSL Aug calls.
    • SPX tends to have a drop mid Aug CTA p.140. Holding TZA puts.
    • As we all know, US debt ceiling deadline Aug 2 and FOMC meeting Aug 9th, both of which I think will encourage these seasonal patterns.
    • Gold stocks tend to outperform SPX Jul 27-Sept27 60% probability, Thackray’s 2011 Investor’s Guide [TIG] p.85. Looking at buying CROCF
    • Oil tends to outperform the market Jul24-Oct3 TIG p.95 or CTA p.80 cites Sept 13 and 66% prob. Looking at XOM verticals.


  • PLEASE NOTE

    We are not day traders. We trade options with a 1-3 month window. Our discussion here reflects this.
  • The Cloud

  • Quotes

    "I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it." --Thomas Jefferson

    "Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected." --George Soros

    “The United States debt, foreign and domestic, was the price of liberty.” – Alexander Hamilton, 1790, First Report on the Public Credit

    "There must be a beginning to any great matter, but the continuing unto the end until it be thoroughly finished yields the true glory." --Sir Francis Drake 1587

    "War was where a brave man found his truest sense of life." --Guy G Kay, Lion of Al Rassan

    "No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." ---Yoda

    "Own nothing. Control everything."---John D Rockefeller

    “The game is rigged. But you cannot lose if you don't play.” –The Wire (the reason to play iron condors and butterflies)

    "Capitalism is the legitimate racket of the ruling class." —Al Capone

    "Only those who risk going too far find out how far they can go."---Fringe

  •  

    May 2012
    M T W T F S S
    « Apr    
     123456
    78910111213
    14151617181920
    21222324252627
    28293031  
  • dinamic_sidebar 4 none

©2012 Teggatz Enterprises LLC Trade Journal Entries (RSS) and Comments (RSS)  Raindrops Theme