Nulla tenaci invia est via.

Nulla tenaci invia est via.


  • Tag Archives F

  • 30 Oct 11

    Posted on October 30, 2011 by Administrator

    1. A problem I have with being bullish on gold right now is that the fear factor is evaporating.

    2. While we can expect a rise in gold because of the drop in the dollar, I’m not sure there is any room for movement above the recent top. This is partly because historically, when real rates go below -3%, the rise in gold tends to plateau.

    3. If we see a real increase in industrial production, silver and platinum would probably be wiser investments, but again, upside potential is not great. And there is the big “if”.

    4. One good thing about gold at the moment is that most investors don’t seem to have realized it’s in an uptrend, or don’t believe it. So now would be a good time for entry.

    5. Gold is expensive, it is not a value play. You can get a lot more bang for your buck buying blue chips. Conclusion: gold’s risk-reward scenario is not favorable.

    6. Added to the Company’s GE Mar options holdings, we how have a very large stake in GE.

    7. On a drop looking at FAS, F, possibly S, AA re-entry. But I don’t think there will be a drop. Gut feeling, sideways movement with an upward bias, or a continuation of the rally. The latter I find more likely.

    This entry was posted in AA, F, GE, gold, platinum, S, silver and tagged , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

  • 22 Sept 11

    Posted on September 22, 2011 by Administrator

    1. Liquidated TZA before Bernanke’s speech because I wanted to minimize event risk. You can imagine I’ve thought a few times about how much money I would have made if I’d held it. 9.1% including commissions.

    2. Liquidated EUO today 66.30% profit.

    3. Bought AA, GE, XLF, F, EWG, EWL near the bottom of the trading range today.

    4. My thinking here is that support is being retested but will hold. If it doesn’t, I have reserved enough cash to jump in with TZA to hedge.

    5. These trades may be swing trades or may be long term. Generally after a big news event, the market has a knee-jerk reaction, and then reverses itself. I am thinking the market will do so here. Also with many of these stocks I am thinking they will rise up to fill the gap. Nevertheless these are also stocks I wish to hold long term, at least through January. My fractals and seasonal patterns as well would suggest a good rise mid-Oct to Jan. The question here, of course, is is this bottom going to hold? Impossible to say, but I think so.

    6. I do not think the euro is done with its decline, or the dollar with its rise, however I think the quick profits have been made. There may be some catastrophe in Europe and I’ll kick myself for liquidating EUO, but I doubt it. I think we will see a slow orderly unwinding of the euro and a slow orderly rise of the dollar. Operation Twist notably has no direct increase in the monetary base and people need a liquid safe haven for their money. Funny but it’s turning out to be the dollar.

    7. As remarked previously with EWL and EWG, weaker currency will mean stronger stock markets.

    8. As remarked previously, blue chips AA GE F are my current alternative to gold.

    9. XLF–I have remarked several times that I think the problems of the American financial sector are grossly overstated and certainly pale in comparison to Europe. Indeed our financial sector is in pretty good shape compared to previous years. I see the financials as grossly undervalued.

    10. I would have bought BAC but Warren Buffet seems to have tainted it. The fundamentals don’t matter here; what matters is investor emotion. The last few companies he has “bailed out”… well, it’s been a Midas touch for Buffet anyway.

    This entry was posted in AA, dollar, EUO, euro, EWG, EWL, F, trade system, XLF and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.


  • PLEASE NOTE

    We are not day traders. We trade options with a 1-3 month window. Our discussion here reflects this.

  • The Cloud

    /SI AA BAC Bank of America C Citibank Copper COT CRB dollar EUO euro Eurozone crisis EWG EWL F financials FOMC FXF GE GLD gold GoldMoney GS Hang Seng ichimoku iron condor IWM NDX oil PALL palladium platinum QE3 RUT S Shanghai Composite silver SLV SPX Swiss franc TZA UUP XOM ZSL

  • Quotes

    "I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it." --Thomas Jefferson

    "Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected." --George Soros

    “The United States debt, foreign and domestic, was the price of liberty.” – Alexander Hamilton, 1790, First Report on the Public Credit

    "There must be a beginning to any great matter, but the continuing unto the end until it be thoroughly finished yields the true glory." --Sir Francis Drake 1587

    "War was where a brave man found his truest sense of life." --Guy G Kay, Lion of Al Rassan

    "No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." ---Yoda

    "Own nothing. Control everything."---John D Rockefeller

    “The game is rigged. But you cannot lose if you don't play.” –The Wire (the reason to play iron condors and butterflies)

    "Capitalism is the legitimate racket of the ruling class." —Al Capone

    "Only those who risk going too far find out how far they can go."---Fringe

  •  

    May 2012
    M T W T F S S
    « Apr    
     123456
    78910111213
    14151617181920
    21222324252627
    28293031  

  • Philosophy

    Our basic theory of investing is that markets are chaotic, in that prices are not necessarily an efficient reflection of value; rather, prices of assets depend largely on the emotional reactions of traders who buy and sell them.

    We generally trade options to minimize capital risked. Our primary aim is to preserve our capital. We trade with a 1-3 month window generally; we focus on the macro picture and are not interested in hourly movements or short term trades.

    Opportunities can be found by carefully studying value; by this we mean both undervalued (buy calls) or overvalued (buy puts).

    Psychology is predictable and pattern-based. People are very slow to change. Thus in the markets, history often repeats itself, and the market can be predicted by carefully studying past performance, including correlating the performance of other asset classes or other markets; this is the repetitive geometry of markets. Patterns tend to replicate across or between assets, asset classes, and time frames.

    If everybody on Wall Street is saying something, it's probably wrong. We are contrarians.

    We generally advocate heavily concentrated positions in which we are extremely confident, rather than wide diversification.

  • Blogroll

  • Recent Posts

  • Categories

  • Archives

  • The Meta

  • dinamic_sidebar 4 none

©2012 Teggatz Enterprises LLC Trade Journal Entries (RSS) and Comments (RSS)  Raindrops Theme