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Nulla tenaci invia est via.


  • Tag Archives EWL

  • 22 Sept 11

    Posted on September 22, 2011 by Administrator

    1. Liquidated TZA before Bernanke’s speech because I wanted to minimize event risk. You can imagine I’ve thought a few times about how much money I would have made if I’d held it. 9.1% including commissions.

    2. Liquidated EUO today 66.30% profit.

    3. Bought AA, GE, XLF, F, EWG, EWL near the bottom of the trading range today.

    4. My thinking here is that support is being retested but will hold. If it doesn’t, I have reserved enough cash to jump in with TZA to hedge.

    5. These trades may be swing trades or may be long term. Generally after a big news event, the market has a knee-jerk reaction, and then reverses itself. I am thinking the market will do so here. Also with many of these stocks I am thinking they will rise up to fill the gap. Nevertheless these are also stocks I wish to hold long term, at least through January. My fractals and seasonal patterns as well would suggest a good rise mid-Oct to Jan. The question here, of course, is is this bottom going to hold? Impossible to say, but I think so.

    6. I do not think the euro is done with its decline, or the dollar with its rise, however I think the quick profits have been made. There may be some catastrophe in Europe and I’ll kick myself for liquidating EUO, but I doubt it. I think we will see a slow orderly unwinding of the euro and a slow orderly rise of the dollar. Operation Twist notably has no direct increase in the monetary base and people need a liquid safe haven for their money. Funny but it’s turning out to be the dollar.

    7. As remarked previously with EWL and EWG, weaker currency will mean stronger stock markets.

    8. As remarked previously, blue chips AA GE F are my current alternative to gold.

    9. XLF–I have remarked several times that I think the problems of the American financial sector are grossly overstated and certainly pale in comparison to Europe. Indeed our financial sector is in pretty good shape compared to previous years. I see the financials as grossly undervalued.

    10. I would have bought BAC but Warren Buffet seems to have tainted it. The fundamentals don’t matter here; what matters is investor emotion. The last few companies he has “bailed out”… well, it’s been a Midas touch for Buffet anyway.

    This entry was posted in AA, dollar, EUO, euro, EWG, EWL, F, trade system, XLF and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

  • 8 Sept 2011

    Posted on September 8, 2011 by Administrator

    1. While I regard Switzerland and Germany as good investments, particularly Germany, ie EWL and EWG, nevertheless it’s important to note that they mirror the broader US market to a large extent, and I anticipate a good drop in the US market. So EWL and EWG are in wait mode.

    2. My fractals and timing models, and seasonal patterns, suggest a low in the broader market at the end of Sept-mid Oct. I am essentially a market timer if you haven’t noticed. Now, I hold RYIRX (double short RUT) and the only thing is Obama’s speech and Bernanke’s comments today. Impossible to say how this will affect the market.

    3. Op-ex next week which is almost always bullish.

    4. Given the generally bearish sentiment toward the euro, to which the Swiss franc is floored, I am maintaining my FXF puts. I am currently 700% profitable which fills me with glee. I don’t want to be greedy and risk such nice profit, but the euro “ain’t cash, it’s trash,” as somebody remarked on StockTwits. Question is how will the dollar react to Obama and Bernanke? Impossible to say. In short I’m nervous about trading today but maintaining my positions.

    This entry was posted in euro, EWG, EWL, FXF, options expiration, RUT, Swiss franc and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

  • Key dates & Germany & Switzerland

    Posted on September 7, 2011 by Administrator

    1. Bundestag vote sept 29–>implications for euro and its generally inverse relation with the dollar. Furthermore EWG–at the moment I don’t see many better investments than Germany. Need to study EWG more and make a trade plan. The tricky part here is a weakening euro… might be too complicated for my taste. Shorting FXF for example forces me to watch /E7, /DX, and EUR:CHF and the mathematical relations are a headache. Nevertheless again, I don’t see many better investments than Germany.
    2. Obama speech Thurs–can’t even guess the implications
    3. FOMC Sept. 20, Nov. 1-2 and Dec. 13.–>any even vague hint of easing will trigger a big rally

    AND….

    4. EWL–I foresee a flight out of Swiss currency and into Swiss assets. With a depreciating currency assets will appreciate, beause the high franc was crippling the Swiss economy. With this out of the way and a cheaper franc, the economy should get an adrenaline boost… additionally people (the Swiss and those holding francs) will want to avoid capital destruction. Basically the SNB is conducting a form of quantitative easing. Need to form trade plan. The risk/reward isn’t as appealing as with EWG, however.

    This entry was posted in EWG, EWL, FOMC and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.


  • PLEASE NOTE

    We are not day traders. We trade options with a 1-3 month window. Our discussion here reflects this.

  • The Cloud

    /SI AA BAC Bank of America C Citibank Copper COT CRB dollar EUO euro Eurozone crisis EWG EWL F financials FOMC FXF GE GLD gold GoldMoney GS Hang Seng ichimoku iron condor IWM NDX oil PALL palladium platinum QE3 RUT S Shanghai Composite silver SLV SPX Swiss franc TZA UUP XOM ZSL

  • Quotes

    "I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it." --Thomas Jefferson

    "Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected." --George Soros

    “The United States debt, foreign and domestic, was the price of liberty.” – Alexander Hamilton, 1790, First Report on the Public Credit

    "There must be a beginning to any great matter, but the continuing unto the end until it be thoroughly finished yields the true glory." --Sir Francis Drake 1587

    "War was where a brave man found his truest sense of life." --Guy G Kay, Lion of Al Rassan

    "No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." ---Yoda

    "Own nothing. Control everything."---John D Rockefeller

    “The game is rigged. But you cannot lose if you don't play.” –The Wire (the reason to play iron condors and butterflies)

    "Capitalism is the legitimate racket of the ruling class." —Al Capone

    "Only those who risk going too far find out how far they can go."---Fringe

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  • Philosophy

    Our basic theory of investing is that markets are chaotic, in that prices are not necessarily an efficient reflection of value; rather, prices of assets depend largely on the emotional reactions of traders who buy and sell them.

    We generally trade options to minimize capital risked. Our primary aim is to preserve our capital. We trade with a 1-3 month window generally; we focus on the macro picture and are not interested in hourly movements or short term trades.

    Opportunities can be found by carefully studying value; by this we mean both undervalued (buy calls) or overvalued (buy puts).

    Psychology is predictable and pattern-based. People are very slow to change. Thus in the markets, history often repeats itself, and the market can be predicted by carefully studying past performance, including correlating the performance of other asset classes or other markets; this is the repetitive geometry of markets. Patterns tend to replicate across or between assets, asset classes, and time frames.

    If everybody on Wall Street is saying something, it's probably wrong. We are contrarians.

    We generally advocate heavily concentrated positions in which we are extremely confident, rather than wide diversification.

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