Nulla tenaci invia est via.
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"I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it." --Thomas Jefferson
"Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected." --George Soros
“The United States debt, foreign and domestic, was the price of liberty.” – Alexander Hamilton, 1790, First Report on the Public Credit
"There must be a beginning to any great matter, but the continuing unto the end until it be thoroughly finished yields the true glory." --Sir Francis Drake 1587
"War was where a brave man found his truest sense of life." --Guy G Kay, Lion of Al Rassan
"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." ---Yoda
"Own nothing. Control everything."---John D Rockefeller
“The game is rigged. But you cannot lose if you don't play.” –The Wire (the reason to play iron condors and butterflies)
"Capitalism is the legitimate racket of the ruling class." —Al Capone
"Only those who risk going too far find out how far they can go."---Fringe
Our basic theory of investing is that markets are chaotic, in that prices are not necessarily an efficient reflection of value; rather, prices of assets depend largely on the emotional reactions of traders who buy and sell them.
We generally trade options to minimize capital risked. Our primary aim is to preserve our capital. We trade with a 1-3 month window generally; we focus on the macro picture and are not interested in hourly movements or short term trades.
Opportunities can be found by carefully studying value; by this we mean both undervalued (buy calls) or overvalued (buy puts).
Psychology is predictable and pattern-based. People are very slow to change. Thus in the markets, history often repeats itself, and the market can be predicted by carefully studying past performance, including correlating the performance of other asset classes or other markets; this is the repetitive geometry of markets. Patterns tend to replicate across or between assets, asset classes, and time frames.
If everybody on Wall Street is saying something, it's probably wrong. We are contrarians.
We generally advocate heavily concentrated positions in which we are extremely confident, rather than wide diversification.