Nulla tenaci invia est via.

Nulla tenaci invia est via.


thinking about getting back to work

It’s Jan 9 and I checked out around Dec 19 or so. So I’ve been on vacation for a while. I do still continuously watch the markets. iphones are very handy for this.

Anyway I’m thinking of returning to my desk. Actually I have the Wall St Journal next to me.

Seasonal patterns suggest a dip now. However the market has been reacting a bit early with its seasonal patterns. In recent months, mind you. For example the Nov rally began in Oct.

I clearly see a bull flag forming on Dow /YM daily futures. If you squint you can also see a cup-and-handle in the daily /YM.

GE has major resistance at about 18.90. GE has almost 100% correlation with the Dow.

My primary trading strategy for some time has been McClellan’s eurodollar fractal. I expect the market to consolidate or go down a little, for maybe a few days. And then I would expect there be more to this rally.

The best time to trade the market is Nov-Apr. The market has a statistical proclivity to rise right now.

Bear in mind, our GE options are for Mar. So I still have a 2 month window.

The Dow priced in dollars appears to be in a very tightening flag and poised or breakout:


  • PLEASE NOTE

    We are not day traders. We trade options with a 1-3 month window. Our discussion here reflects this.
  • The Cloud

  • Quotes

    "I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it." --Thomas Jefferson

    "Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected." --George Soros

    “The United States debt, foreign and domestic, was the price of liberty.” – Alexander Hamilton, 1790, First Report on the Public Credit

    "There must be a beginning to any great matter, but the continuing unto the end until it be thoroughly finished yields the true glory." --Sir Francis Drake 1587

    "War was where a brave man found his truest sense of life." --Guy G Kay, Lion of Al Rassan

    "No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." ---Yoda

    "Own nothing. Control everything."---John D Rockefeller

    “The game is rigged. But you cannot lose if you don't play.” –The Wire (the reason to play iron condors and butterflies)

    "Capitalism is the legitimate racket of the ruling class." —Al Capone

    "Only those who risk going too far find out how far they can go."---Fringe

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