CheetahhhhhhhBlog Mark III

First of all, Van wants me to mention that the Bug went to the dentist, and he was a good boy. I was actually expecting a lot of trouble but he actually seemed to enjoy himself.

Grandma’s visiting. We had actually been planning to go to Muscat, but Van didn’t feel like it, what with being extremely pregnant. So grandma came here.

We went to the Mall of the Emirates in Dubai yesterday. Bug will not go anywhere without his pink clown car. He refuses to leave the house without it. So we’re taking along a crazy pink clown car everywhere. This is actually the car that he had a tantrum about (mentioned below). Anyway the Bug enjoyed riding around the Mall of the Emirates on his crazy pink clown car. He goes really fast. The problem here is that Dubai is a bit like New York city. There’s a ton of people everywhere. It’s very easy for a little boy on a crazy pink clown car to disappear in the crowd. So it was a bit stressful for me to be running along behind him, particularly given he’s a toddler (which means he’s trying to be independent and thus only does what daddy wants if he feels like it).

I have discovered a reason why it would be nice to live in Dubai. This would be Paul Cafe in the Mall of the Emirates. It’s a cafe with French food and excellent people-watching. Had the most delicious bread in years. It’s so difficult to get good bread outside Europe and North America. You can get OK bread at Carrefour. It certainly beats the bread I got in Korea, which was made with rice or something crazy. However it’s just OK bread. Nothing to get excited about. WELL… at Paul Cafe they have bread from heaven. Real honest-to-God good bread. It was paradise. Now, I’m not sure why anybody would actually want to live in Dubai, I’m well on record for saying Dubai stinks. But Paul Cafe has good bread, and good luck getting good bread in Asia. Good damn luck. So anyway, one reason why you might want to live in Dubai.

So I thought I was on vacation 2 weeks ago, but that was cut off by the new admin of the new university, and so I spent the last 2 weeks sitting in my office. One of the more pointless and irritating exercises of the Cheetahhhhhhh’s illustrious career. Now I really am on vacation. However the new admin made a point of telling everyone to be back by Aug 3 or else. Which is equally irritating, classes don’t start until Sept. The university doesn’t even really exist yet and I’m already tremendously irritated. I’m trying to keep a positive attitude and to do this, I keep reminding myself that I got a raise. It helps a little. Anyway that’s the last I’m going to say about work until, I imagine, Aug 3rd.

Haven’t blogged much in recent days because we don’t have a lot going on. Van is too pregnant to want to do much. Bug is two and a half and so it’s really difficult to take him in public anywhere. And it’s also hotter than hell out there. So we haven’t been up to much. Been watching a lot of Desperate Housewives. We’re on season 3.

I really love Scarlet, my Kia Sportage. I had a Honda Citi in Saudi named Missy, and I bought her new also. She was blue. I had affection for her but no real love. In Korea I had a scooter. Scooters are actually the most practical mode of transport in the crowded Far East. My scooter was named the Black Hornet. I loved him a lot. But I really love Scarlet. I’m not sure why, she’s just a Kia. As I think I mentioned before, she’s actually the cheapest SUV with the cheapest “luxury” options. That’s why we got her. So it’s surprising to me that I love her. But the things I love are this. #1 I’m a lot bigger than most cars on the road and so am not afraid of the idiotic driving all around me, as they’re the ones who will get hurt of they crash into me. #2 the leather seats are real nice. #3 I love the sunroof, though I keep it closed during the day because of the killer sun, but at night it’s a lot of fun. #4 the MP3 input–I hook up my iPhone or my Zune. Love it. #5 while I have never actually used the 4WD, I like the potential for offroading. Granted, the Kia is actually designed for family transport, ie taking the wife and kids to the mall, and it’s actually ideal for this. However it does have the capability for mild off-roading. While I haven’t done it (too damn hot right now) I like the potential.

I deleted my trade commentary page, just didn’t feel like keeping up with it. I’m going to discuss my financial thoughts here again, but really only when I have something interesting to say. Anyway I anticipate a retreat in the markets of around 10% of market value. With the RUT I anticipate a retreat to around, say, 445. However the market is in a consolidation pattern right now and it might take a while for the retreat to actually develop. We’re entering the seasonal pattern of the summer doldrums. There is the old commodities adage, “Sell in May and go away,” and it’s wise advice. It may take until July for the actual retreat to happen. With this in mind I have a put option on the VIX, which is actually already profitable by about 30%, but if the retreat happens I am looking for about a 400% profit. You should always have a profit target. I want to place some iron condor trades but I’m waiting for the market to drop a bit so that volatility raises the strike prices. If we don’t get some volatility today, I will wait until Monday. I’m going to be placing RUT iron condor trades with strikes of 370/380/570/580 I think. I’m still debating that in my head. I’m waiting for the market to drop because I want to buy some calendar spreads on C, a spread of Jan 10 and Jan 11 with a strike of 5, I think. I think 5 is a good target for C for January. I think the sky’s the limit after that. Despite current weakness in the financials, I’m still bullish on the financial sector–well, specifically, I’m bullish on banks that Uncle Sam has specifically stated that he will not allow them to fail. Such as Citibank and Bank of America. Any financial company that Uncle Sam doesn’t have his thumbs in, I’m not interested.

The sheikh of Ras Al Khaimah, who is also the president of the Emerati federal government, came to the university today. He seems like a nice guy, made a few jokes in good English, and patiently stood there while everybody took pictures with him. He doesn’t travel with a huge entourage like the Saudi princes. He drives a white Land Rover.

Bug had his first bona fide tantrum. It was in Carrefour. There was a pink car-like toy that he liked and was riding around the store on. When I refused to buy it, he had a screaming at the top of his lungs, flopping around on the floor, world is going to end, good old fashioned tantrum. I could barely carry him out of the mall, he’s a good fighter for such a little boy. My lord. And he cried all the way home.

One of the deans has altered the terms of employment. He expects us to be there 830-530 and he only wants us to have 60 days holiday. Most contracts say something like 9-5 but this is never actually expected, including at George Mason. Well the new dean actually expects it. And most universities say 60 days vacation, or something like that, but actually you’re done when classes finish. However here, with the new dean calling the shots, I’m not done. I went to my office today and sat there. Since people read this blog I will say no more, though my opinion about it is clear to everybody. Anyway yesterday I agreed to follow the dean’s wishes and so today I showed up at 830 despite having finished all my work for the term. Bug asked me why I looked so sad. I will say no more.

Yesterday it was revealed in the financial news that Warren Buffet, the god of investing, has bought shares in Wells Fargo and US Bancorp. Furthermore yesterday Goldman Sachs posted a buy recommendation on Bank of America.

Well the Cheetahhhhhhh is pleased about this because it just confirms what he’s been saying for 3 months now. Perhaps longer, I don’t feel like scrolling through my blog to check. But late Feb or early March I started buying financials, and I said, quote, “Uncle Sam is obviously not going to let them fail”. I’m not being Mr I-Told-You-So. Rather, it’s just nice to have Warren confirm my judgements.

Bug and I went in to the university and posted my grades. They seem to be busy taking down the green and yellow George Mason signs. I saw them repainting a university van. The new AURAK colors are red and white, same as the RAK flag. As far as I know, I have one more duty to perform. The sheikh is coming to inspect tomorrow. So I guess I will have to stand around for an hour and say “Hello your highness” and then I’m done.

A sheikh would be considered a duke in the English system of nobility, so would be addressed as “Your grace” or “Sire”. I’m not sure why we address the sheiks of the Emirates as “Your Highness,” which is the address of a king. Maybe it’s a courtesy. I don’t actually care one way or another, but forms of address are important.

It’s getting hotter than hell out, to the point where the air conditioner can’t actually make it any better than luke-warm. I have no idea how people survived out here prior to air conditioning. Obviously they did and it’s possible, the English Raj in India is a good example, somehow they muddled through the heat, but life must have been rather unpleasant, and it must have been almost impossible to get anything done 6 months of the year. Heat like this just saps any energy or motivation. We are already cave-dwellers and it’s only May. The bright side of this picture is Saudi was actually hotter so although it’s hotter than hell here, it’s only one of the lesser levels of the inferno.

We have become obsessed with Desperate Housewives.  The entire concept seemed a copy of Sex in the City and so I just ignored the show for, what, 7 years. However much to my surprise, it’s a really good show.

My childhood friend Ben, who I reconnected with on Facebook, described the current financial crisis as not “a destruction of value (It’s kind of a zero sum game). It is a masssive renegotiaon of stored value the baby boomers think they have, and the potential annuities (finate) that the gen X’rs could provide. It’s really just intergenerational chap 11 in reverse.”

I think this is an interesting way to look at it. With money, we have to always remember that somebody is giving it, and somebody is receiving it. This goes with all things of numeric value, such as stock, houses, cars, etc. Essentially Ben (who says he turned into a math geek) is saying that the accumulated value of the Baby Boomers, our parents, was taken from them (their retirement accounts and the value of their property) and this value was transferred (on credit primarily) to the X-Generation, us kids who went to high school in the 80s. This is in many ways what happened. For example, I know that my parents lost a lot of the value of their retirement accounts. On the other hand, I have made 160% thorough speculation on the financial crisis. The X-Gen owned houses and retirement accounts also, and were hit also; however they are still contributing monthly to their IRAs etc and so the current loss will be absorbed, whereas the Baby Boomers are no longer contributing and will only suffer from the destruction of their accumulated wealth.

I think Ben’s analysis is interesting but doesn’t present the whole picture. We have a lot of economic factors going on right now. There was a massive transfer of money out of the financial industry. There was a massive transfer into the commodities industries (oil, grain, eg, food is much more expensive now) and into the military complex. There was a erosion of the value of the dollar, which took income directly away from any American doing business abroad. The government, through bailing out the financial and auto industries, has become a majority stakeholder in many companies, such as Citibank. And there is the often overlooked detail that the government is spending more than it actually has, and this debt is being financed primarily by China, which is the principle buyer of US treasury bills. So essentially future US wealth, an astounding amount of it actually, has been mortgaged to the Chinese.

So the Cheetahhhhhhh is on vacay, more or less. I have to go in and record grades. I also have to go in on Tuesday because the sheikh is coming to inspect. Presumably after the sheikh does his inspection, I have no more duties.

Van has done a lot of baby shopping. It is unfortunate that most of our baby stuff from Little Chris is in the Philippines. This is one of those hidden expenses of being an expat; namely, you are often forced to buy the same thing two or three times.

I took the trouble to get an HDI cable, instead of the standard  RGB cables, to hook my Playstation to my HDTV. The difference is striking; the resolution is much higher, as is the detail. With a very visual game, like Tomb Raider, it’s worth the trouble to see it in high definition.

Not a lot going on otherwise, except the Bug has discovered pee-ing and it’s no end of trouble. He’s constantly taking it out and pee-ing places like a cat.

It’s the RAK summer festival. I think they have it now, before summer really starts, because the actual summer itself will be too frakkin hot. Anyway I can’t really see any “festival” going on aside from fireworks the last two nights in a row, which the Bug has enjoyed.

I’ve been taking Champix, the stop-smoking pill, for a few weeks now and have no more nicotine in my body. I’m doing fine except I occasionally have a dull headache. Also I get irritable, especially when the Bug is loud. Also I want to eat sugar. But aside from these points the Champix is quite effective. Never thought I’d get the nicotine out of my body, actually.

Next Thursday I’ll be done with school. The Cheetahhhhhhh begins another long summer vacation and thank God.

I bought an iPhone. I looooooooooooooove it. It’s the coolest thing ever. Van is jealous. The actual phone itself was only AED375. It’s the monthly data access where they get you. At the end of a year of labor in a hot foreign clime, I felt a reward was in order. I often do. After two years in Saudi I bought myself a Breitling watch if you recall. I’m a great believer in the carrot and the stick. I’ve been wanting a Blackberry or iPhone for several years, and actually talked about it constantly with Van, but was always too cheap to buy one. Well the academic year has rolled on by and this was a tough one, what with the collapse of George Mason U etc. So I decided an iPhone was in order. You might be saying to yourself, isn’t a new SUV a reward already? Well, true, but actually that was a cost-saving measure. It’s AED700 less per month than renting a Toyota Yaris from Hertz.

Anyway Van needs a reward too, she has mentioned  a lens for her Olympus camera or a dishwasher.

I’m not sure what sweet money fairy has landed on my shoulder, but I’ve just been brilliant with the stock market lately. I wish I had somebody I could decently brag to. I mean somebody who really understands investing. I’d make him really envious. I jumped on the financials right at the bottom. I’m not rich now but I have something to smile about.

I’ll be frank with you. In my opinion this right now is the biggest buying opportunity in history since… well, say, 1929. I could be wrong and don’t come writing me nasty emails if I am. I’m long on deep-in-the-money Jan 2011 options for AIG, C, and ETFC. There’s a lot more I’m going to buy too. If I had the cash right now I’d buy AXP, BAC, EDC, EWY, and EWM.

Van says we have good karma. Maybe so. I’m not sure I actually believe in the mystical concept of karma, though I do think if you do good things, then good things happen to you, however I think this is mostly because of nurturing relationships and attitudes, rather than Shiva holding the cosmic scales of karmic balance. But whatever the case may be, we seem to have good karma lately.

For one thing, I am on vacation in 10 days. Cheers. Second, there’s Scarlet, our new SUV, which we love. It’s a pleasure now to drive around doing errands etc. Yesterday we drove out to the ostrich farm just for the hell of it, partly because I felt like driving some more.

Scarlet does like to drink gas, however!

Third on the good karma front, I went to the computer guy at work and asked for a better laptop. To my surprise, he gave me a really nice laptop with no questions asked. Unfortunately it is still too slow to play my Total War Empire game, which demands a really high end computer. And also unfortunately, my $3000 Dell XPS died again. That thing has never worked and is a piece of crap. I’m never buying a Dell again. I’m also not putting any more monry into repairing it. I am vaguely contemplating ordering an Alienware laptop in the States and having my mom bring it back. She’s going to the States for 2 weeks. However to put it in perspective, this would essentially be paying $1500-2000 just to play a game. I like my Total War but I’m not sure I want to spend that kind of money on another laptop, when we have 4 in the house, and one of them is very new and fast.

So to return to good karma, I’m presently typing this on a very fast and fancy laptop.

Also for good karma, my stomach seems to be on the mend. My doctor told me now I need to lose some weight, this will help cure the stomach problems. I’m not happy about that.

I got my new SUV, Scarlet, yesterday. Grandma is visiting this weekend. We took an excursion to Dubai, to the Dubai Mall. As usual we checked out the fish at the DUbai Aquarium and had gelato and Taco Bell. The Cheetahhhhhhh is getting old and starting to have foot problems, and I forgot about this and wore my sandals. It’s getting chick-a-lickin hot out so you really only want to wear sandals. Anyway the Dubai Mall is the size of a medium-sized town (literally) and after walking around it for a few hours, the CHeetahhhhhhh came up lame, like one of those horses who you have to put down because he can’t ride any more. I almost needed grandma to carry me back to Scarlet.

Anyway my new Sportage is fun and I love her. I have never driven an SUV before and was a bit surprised by how big it is. ANd a Sportage is a small SUV actually. I’m really used to small cars I suppose. Also the pick-up is a tad slow. However on the other side of the coin, Scarelt doesn’t even notice potholes in the road. I didn’t take her into the desert so I have nothing to report about off-roading yet. A nice ride though. I love her. Bug refers to her as “daddy’s new red truck.”