CheetahhhhhhhBlog Mark III

Greetings once again from Saudi Arabia, and happy new year to all.

We had a nice trip to the States. It started out inauspiciously with the airplane breaking down in the Yanbu airport. We knew we were in trouble when a Saudi prince and his wives stalked off the plane. Eventually, about 7 hours later, we got into the air. We ended up being rerouted through Paris on Air France which was nice because they serve alcohol.

We landed in New York City and stayed at the Waldorff-Astoria. It was pretty fancy, though I objected slightly to my $26 rum and coke at the hotel bar. Vanessa and Bug saw their first snow in New York and we did a bit of shopping. I stayed at the Waldorf not out of a desire for fanciness, but rather, we landed unexpectedly on Manhattan in the middle of the night and I literally could not think of another hotel to tell the taxi driver.

We came to Madison in the midst of a snowstorm. The Bug loooooooved snow. He got really excited whenever he was around it. I took Vanessa on the grand tour, showing her where I went to school, and even taking her to Makeout Point.

At first, of course, we were terribly jetlagged, going to bed at 3 in the afternoon. We finally adjusted to American time on CHristmas day. Ironically we had to fly back to Saudi the next day.

Vanessa and the Bug met the aunties and uncles in Milwaukee, and was quite popular. We also stayed at the Pfister Hotel which was nice.

In Madison, the Bug was quite popular with my Unlce Stan, and we had a Christmas day dinner at his house.

We stayed in New York a second day on the return trip and had a lot of fun taking pictures (Vanessa got a fancy new Olympus camera). The return was spoiled slightly by Saudia losing one of our bags. It has not reappeared yet either. We are quite sad because they it contains Vanessa’s presents. Also airline liability is limited to $500 but the bag contained well over $2000 worth of stuff. Hopefully it will reappear.

It’s 5AM here in Saudi (jet lagged once again) and not much is coming to my brain, although I know quite a bit happened during the holiday. I will add details as they occur to me.

New York City on daddy’s back

My childhood house

Frozen lake with ice fishermen behind us

Bug loves snow!

A Pfister Xmas

I will post some more pics later, got to get ready for work now…

It’s the Cheetahhhhhhh’s birthday today. 38 years old. God bless.

Actually there was a time in my life, not too long ago, when I would have regarded 38 as outrageously old. Indeed I scarcely believe that I’m 38 now, except I know it’s true.

We’re going to Pizza Hut for lunch. Vanessa is making me a cake and my favorite dinner, fondue.

6 days to go, and we fly to America.

China’s markets are going into a downturn. Cabot’s China and Emerging Markets Report (CCEMR) has advised against investment in China at the moment, and predicts a market crash. I agree. I was saying the Chinese market will crash a few months ago. I have anticipated January. This is actually an opportunity; when it crashes, then buy. Nobody questions the long-term growth of China.

The US stock market is extremely volatile and has clearly gone into  a downward trend.  My mother has asked me what to do about her retirement investments. My reply was that there is nothing good she can do with traditional investment vehicles, such as retirement accounts. I suppose stay in bonds. I would predict the US market will trend downward for at least the next 6 months.

In a volatile market, it is best to think short-term, if you want to make money. I am very dubious of the notion that you should ride it out. This means lose money. The stock market is not some mysterious vacuum into which money is sucked. Rather, it is a marketplace just like the local mall. For every seller, there is a buyer. This means, for everyone who loses a dollar, somebody else gains a dollar. When the market declines, certain people are making a lot of money, and certain people are losing. Thus the traditional advice to ride it out strikes me as foolish, unless, of course, you don’t know anything about investing and are willing to simply accept losses.

My advice to my mother was either do nothing about her retirement investments (because there’s nothing good to do), or else change the way she invests and buy short. Buying short means you bet that a stock, or the market, will decline. For example, QLD pays the rate of the NASDAQ 1000 index, while QID pays the inverse. In a market such as we have now, a short position such as QID will make money.

First of all, the coup attempt in the Philippines is over. It served as a conversation opener with my Filipino colleagues at the college. “How about that coup attempt, eh?” I sound flip about it and I suppose I am, because, once again, there are so many coup attempts that it’s hard to take them seriously.

Well there was some action in Capoocan, where we have our house. In the next barrio, some lunatic robbed a house and killed the woman and children inside. It’s on TFC news right now. Vanessa is all freaked out about it and I must confess, I’m a little startled myself, given that Capoocan is a quiet 3-street town with very little going on otherwise. Vanessa is freaked out particularly because she knows the father (who is working in Saudi). Well, unfortunately there is the problem of economic crime in the Philippines, by which I mean, people are desperately poor and have few opportunities to improve their lot, and they get driven to crime. Nevertheless I’m surprised it happened in Capoocan, which you’d think would be a bit of a safe haven from such things. Also why kill everybody in the house? Why not just tie them up and steal the stuff? The violence of it disturbs me.

I’m checking the news every hour or so to find out news about a possible revaluation of the Saudi riyal. Probably won’t know anything until tomorrow though. And I’m getting myself excited for nothing because it probably won’t happen, and if it does, it will probably be a 1-2% adjustment, which is not worth my time considering I’ve lost a third of my salary with the fall of the dollar. Indeed the Philippines peso is now at 42 to the dollar. Frakkin hell.

Thankfully we are traveling this Hajj vacation to the one place where the fall of the dollar means little, ie, the good ol’ US of A.

Incidentally for you expats out there who are alarmed about the decline of the dollar… I was reading foreign exchange commentary this morning, and most analysts think that the dollar has now hit its floor, and will probably start recovering. I have read 3 analysts who predict the dollar will rise to 1.35 versus the euro by Dec 2008. This is good, though I still remember 2001, when the euro was 89 cents to the dollar.

There is a meeting this week among the finance ministers of the Gulf states. They are talking about de-pegging their currencies from the dollar. GOD I HOPE SO! Inflation is at a ten year high here in Saudi. For instance, when we returned after the summer vacation, we were mildly shocked at the rise in grocery prices. There is some talk of giving the riyal parity with the dollar, which means my savings would increase by 300%. Actually I have a fairly sizeable savings just sitting in the bank, earning no interest at the moment. It’s there because I keep waiting for them to de-peg the riyal. If they do, it will be the best Christmas present ever. Apparently the UAE and others are pro-de-pegging but the Saudi finance minister is against it. Apparently he is under a lot of pressure about it, though, and I hope he caves in and the riyal is de-pegged before Christmas. That’s my simple wish for making the world a better and happier place.