Another coup attempt
There’s another coup attempt going on at the moment in Manila. Vanessa woke up this morning all riled up about the coup attempt. Apparently it is a mildly serious coup attempt because Gloria’s soldiers have imposed a curfew and have also arrested members of the media. I am a bit indifferent because Gloria herself came to power in a coup. Also, there are always coup attempts going on, so it’s hard to take them seriously. Now, Americans have never had a serious coup attempt, unless you count the way George came to power in the Florida voting. So to an American, coup attempts in Manila might sound a little freaky. Actually it doesn’t affect the average person such as ourselves in the slightest. I was actually in Manila during one coup attempt, and didn’t even know it was going on, aside from there being a few soldiers in the street.
In exactly 2 weeks from now, we will be on a plane to New York City.
There’s not a lot going on here in Yanbu. We’re just killing 2 weeks.
Old Smithy
I see on the news that Old Smithy died on the 20th. I.e., Ian Smith, former prime minister of Rhodesia. I spent a lot of time studying his political career while I was at the University of WIsconsin. Indeed I know so much about the guy that I actually feel somewhat close to him, despite the fact that I didn’t agree with his politics. It’s ironic actually. I wish I could go to his funeral, out of sheer curiosity, just to see the outpouring of emotion from the Rhodies. Anyway via con dios, Smithy.
Well yesterday was Thanksgiving, which is the quintessentially American holiday. There are just enough Americans in Yanbu for the grocery stores to bother shipping in turkeys. We went got stuck with a sketchy Brazilian turkey however. Who ever heard of a turkey from the AMazon? It cooked a little dry, I might note. We had several of my colleagues over for turkey dinner.
We went to the local nursery and got some plants for Vanessa to make a garden on one of our terraces. I’m sitting out on the terrace right now. It’s rather pleasant, and the weather has cooled down considerably. This time of year, I’d say the weather in the Hijaz desert is pretty close to perfection: 70-80F, dry, crystal blue sky.
20 days to go, and we are leaving on a jet plane for Chicago.
biggest default in history
Vanessa has a cold and is walking around the house cold and miserable, wearing a cashmere sweater and my jeans jacket. This is amusing because we’re in the middle of the Arabian desert.
The Economist describes the fall of the dollar (subscription required) as “the biggest default in history, having wiped far more off the value of foreigners’ assets than any emerging market has ever done”. That’s an interesting way to put it.
The crux of the matter is the current US government doesn’t give a damn about the value of the dollar. If you pay attention to their comments, there is always talk that they “support a strong dollar”, yet in reality they have done absolutely nothing about it for over 2 years now, during which the Cheetahhhhhhh has consistently been howling over the erosion of his salary. Hopefully Hilary will change this, indeed I’m confident she will. Because the implications of a weak dollar are bad for the USA in the long-term, as foreigners shift their assets out of the dollar and out of the US stock market. The greatest pile of money in the universe is sitting on a street called Wall Street in New York City, and we want to keep it there.
The problem is our current child-president. I place all blame of all American troubles on him, and on you nit witted 51% of the population who voted for him.
I’m not writing any more advice about what to buy in investment. For one thing, the stress of journalistic integrity (which is actually a ridiculous concept on a blog) stressed me out. I actually worried about when to write “Go!” with FXI. And then the implications of the advice stressed me.
If you took my advice on FXI, you made 3.4%. However yesterday those gains would have been wiped out. So hopefully you also took my advice to put a sell order on any 1% drop. So your net profit in 2 days should have been 2.4% or thereabouts, which is not bad for 2 days of work. Generally speaking however, everyone should keep their money in cash at the moment, or else buy short. Even money market funds are losing value… quietly. Check the current interest rate on your money market and you’ll probably be unpleasantly surprised. Several banks have taken losses just to maintain their money market funds at par. This problem arises because of the housing mortgage crisis.
If you want to buy short on emerging markets, such as China, look at EEV.
Go
You have the “Go!” I was discussing earlier for the opening of trade in New York today.
The market is very turbulent right now, be warned. Nevertheless I have bought FXI and EWH.
Anyone who takes my advice on this should watch the Shanghai and Hong Kong market carefully, because I don’t think we are even close to being through with turbulence. I would place a sell order for whenever FXI or EWH loses 1%. I recommend watching FXI on the Financial Times website, where you can see the actual index that FXI trades on.
Monday Nov 12
It’s midterm week here at YUC and I am for some crazy reason in charge of running the midterms. The midterms here are a big hassle because we have to take extraordinary measures to prevent cheating. This whole thing has been a terrible headache for me, and I also have to be in the office at 7AM, which is not to the Cheetahhhhhhh’s liking at all.
For those of you eagerly awaiting my word of “Go!” to buy FXI, keep waiting. I anticipate the market will decline for the rest of November, probably December too. There are various reasons for this, primarily that we can anticipate a recession or at least an economic downturn in the States. If you are really keen to buy something right now, I would recommend QID, which is an index that pays double the inverse of the NASDAQ. You would have made about 14% if you’d bought it on Wednesday. I wish I had actually, but I think you can still make money from QID. Anyway on the subject of China making you and the CHeetahhhhhhh rich, what we want to do is wait until the stock sell-off has spent itself, and the Shanghai market and New York market both have a few days of sustained gains. Then would be the time to buy, at a bargain price too probably. I will give you the “Go” word when I act, though I am probably keeping my money in savings until the new year.
You may think the Cheetahhhhhhh’s investment philosophy runs against conventional wisdom. I kept my money in savings July-Aug, and now Nov-Dec. I have nothing in the stock market at the moment. As a result, I kept the earlier gains I made. Everyone else who is sitting on their investments in losing a lot of money right now. Your stock broker or investment advisor probably tells you to wait. This is good advice for 95% of people, because 95% of people don’t trouble to read the Wall Street Journal, and thus don’t know when to buy and sell. My mother, for example, asked me what to invest in, and I told her wait, because she clearly doesn’t know when to buy or sell.
Your investment advisors will also tell you to diversify. This, once again, is good advice for 95% of people, because they don’t read the WSJ, and so don’t know what’s making money at the moment. When you diversify, you lessen risk, but you also lessen profits.
At the moment, as I said, I have nothing invested. If I were to invest, it would be 100% in QID, and I would watch the NASDAQ constantly. I would sell QID on the first sustained rise. When the markets get some juice flowing, I will probably go 100% in FXI, and watch the Shanghai market constantly.
2 years
So it’s our anniversary. 2 years. God bless. We’re at our second home, the Sheraton Jeddah. We haven’t been here in a long time and had forgotten our reason for always coming here–the buffet Western breakfast. Delicious. The Bug loved it too.
For her anniversary present, Vanessa is getting an Olympus SLR digital camera. I got it for her because taking pictures is her primary obsession. She was a bit jealous of my sister’s camera. I was having a hard time deciding what to get her until last week, when she was looking at pictutres of our wedding in Capoocan. She remarked that the background was much more sharp in Liza’s pictures. That decided it, and I ordered her a fancy camera. It’s also her Christmas present because it’s a tad expensive.
Mission Accomplished
We are in Jeddah. We went to the US consulate and picked up Bug’s new blue American passport. He also has an official American birth certificate. So we’re all set for our trip to the States–we have the ticket, reservations, Van’s visa, and Bug’s passport. Mission accomplished. It seems like this whole semester has spend doing one part or another of this mission.
Bug has turned into a tease with strangers, sticking out his tongue and playing peak-a-boo. He is very popular with everyone because he is so cute. Indeed, for example, we went to Teyana for lunch and the waiters all remembered us and welcomed us back. I don’t think we’d be so popular if Bug wasn’t so cute, because he invariable makes big, embarrassing messes in any restaurant.
Love and Other Disasters
You know because there are no cinemas here in Saudi, you watch the latest movies by buying bootleg DVDs. In our case, we bought our latest batch from a small guy selling DVDs out of his bag at the Filipino market. Tonight we watched Love And Other DIsasters, which we enjoyed. Good flilck. There was exactly one part of London which I recognized (Heathrow) and shouted “I’ve been there!” (this, because my London experience is limited to 3 days, and a pub and a house party are most of what I remember). Anyway I gave the film an “A” for the English Holly Golightly and Vanessa gave it a “B”.
For anyone remarking my “China will make me rich” post, well, you may have noticed, the Hang Seng lost 5%. I also said wait, the Chinese market will correct. I should start a financial blog, because I seem to know what I’m doing. Wait until I say so, and then buy the ETF “FXI”. Just relax and wait for my word, you’ll make 5-10% in 2-3 days after I say “Go!”
Active lifestyle
Vanessa and I have been doing our active lifestyle, including a bit of exercise. Today we walked on the Yanbu corniche and The Bug enjoyed the swings. I was too tired today for the active lifestyle, but I’m committed to reducing my pants size so that I don’t have to buy more pants.
I’m really busy at work and don’t appreciate it a bit. Today I voluntarily went back to the office after lunch. This was a shock to my colleagues, who have never seen me after lunch. Yes indeed, I had that much work to do. It’s going to be the same thing tomorrow. I put in 8 hours today, which is like a normal job, in which case I would have never left America. Thankfully this spurt of activity is only due to midterms and will be over soon.
It’s our anniversary on Thursday. Two years. God bless. We are going to Jeddah and will have a few nice restaurant dinners.
My computer overheated and the video chip got fried. My fancy XPS. This sucks. Now I’m using my Royal COmmission-issue HP laptop which actually isn’t bad at all, but I’m quite depressed about my XPS. With it out of commission, there will be no games for the Cheetahhhhhhh. I’m going to get it repaired in the States, it will be a lot cheaper there.
I was smart enough to sell my mutual funds right when the stock market started falling, and thank God for that foresight. I made 6% in 2 months, total return, and thats not bad at all. I’m going to use ETFs for investment from now on, however, for some simple reason that they are like stocks and can be instantly sold. I’m waiting a while before I put money back in investments, and the Cheetahhhhhhh would advise you to do the same. The market is very turbulent right now and it’s not going to get better. Also there are too many economic problems in the USA. Also last week’s Fed rate cut was a bad idea and will harm the economy. Also there is a distinct possibility of a big correction in the Chinese markets, and this will wash over into European and US markets.
